The Uncanny Valley by Masahiro Mori is a highly referenced 1970 paper about human reaction to realistic robots. The first authorized and reviewed English translation has been published in the IEEE Spectrum, and is available online. He starts the paper by explaining, “in climbing toward the goal of making robots appear human, our affinity for them increases until we come to a valley, which I call the uncanny valley.”

Here’s an excerpt:

Since creating an artificial human is itself one of the objectives of robotics, various efforts are underway to build humanlike robots. For example, a robot’s arm may be composed of a metal cylinder with many bolts, but by covering it with skin and adding a bit of fleshy plumpness, we can achieve a more humanlike appearance. As a result, we naturally respond to it with a heightened sense of affinity.

Many of our readers have experience interacting with persons with physical disabilities, and all must have felt sympathy for those missing a hand or leg and wearing a prosthetic limb. Recently, owing to great advances in fabrication technology, we cannot distinguish at a glance a prosthetic hand from a real one. Some models simulate wrinkles, veins, fingernails, and even fingerprints. Though similar to a real hand, the prosthetic hand’s color is pinker, as if it had just come out of the bath.

One might say that the prosthetic hand has achieved a degree of resemblance to the human form, perhaps on a par with false teeth. However, when we realize the hand, which at first site looked real, is in fact artificial, we experience an eerie sensation. For example, we could be startled during a handshake by its limp boneless grip together with its texture and coldness. When this happens, we lose our sense of affinity, and the hand becomes uncanny.

Here’s the diagram, as published on IEEE Spectrum:

Read the entire article.

Suicide Girls has published an excerpt of the final piece of The Rapture of the Nerds by Charles Stross and Cory Doctorow. Here’s a bit:

The Burj Khalifa’s in-room TV gets an infinity of channels, evidently cross-wired from the cable feed for Hilbert’s hotel. It uses some evolutionary computing system to generate new programs on the fly, every time you press the channel-up button. This isn’t nearly as banal as Huw imagined it might be when she read about it on the triangular-folded cardboard standup that materialized in her hand as she reached for the remote. That’s because — as the card explained — the Burj has enough computation to model captive versions of Huw at extremely high speed, and to tailor the programming by sharpening its teeth against these instances-in-a-bottle so that every press of the button brings up eye-catching, attention-snaring material: soft-core pornography that involves pottery, mostly.

She goes on to have angst over that fact that each button press is creating and killing hordes of herself.

You can read the full excerpt here. The Rapture of the Nerds is available on Amazon.

Amped is the new technothriller by Daniel H. Wilson, author of Robopocalypse.

I don’t like to give away spoilers, and I’m not very good at traditional book reviews, so I’ll just give you the highlights about what I liked about Amped:

While the characters in the novel have a wide range of implants, it’s an intriguing thought that even relatively simple intercessions in how our brain works can have big effects: “an exquisitely timed series of electrical stimulations, gently pushing her mind toward the Beta One wave state…massively amplified her intelligence”.

The brain implants themselves are both futuristic and yet decidedly retro. On one hand, they interact with the neurons of the brain, and on the other hand, they are adjusted via a maintenance port using tools that sound similar to a set of dental picks.

Society itself is essentially the civilization of today. Other than brain implants, there’s no new technology. This increases the immediacy of the book: This isn’t some shiny, far off future. This is what our world would look like today with the addition of implants.

I love the structure of the book. I’m a sucker for the interchapter news articles.

Fans of cyberpunk will notice some similarity to the tradition of setting stories in the seedy underbelly of society. Gibson had the slums of Tokyo, Walter Jon Williams had an old Nevada ranch, and Wilson has Oklahoma (which appeared prominently in both Robopocalypse and Amped).

Although his background is a PhD in robotics, Wilson obviously loves writing human characters. This isn’t a technology story, this is a human story.

I hope you enjoy it.

Wilson and I were on a panel together at SXSW Interactive talking about the future of artificial intelligence this summer. He and I differed in our point of view: He believes that human-level, general-purpose AI is a far-off possibility, while I think it’s definitely coming and has a very predictable timeframe. This doesn’t stop him from writing about AI: some of the character’s neural implants have strong AI capabilities.

And this leads to one of the areas of the book I have some trouble with. The technology that it takes to deliver that “exquisitely timed series of electrical stimulations” to push someone toward Beta One wave state is not going to be the same level of technology that it takes to deliver strong AI capability in a computer implant in someone’s head.

The former is something that, if it were feasible, could be created in the near-future in a world we would recognize as our own, while the latter is something that will exist further out, in a time in which we’ll be surrounded by strong AI in the form of robots and life in the cloud. It’ll be a very different world than ours. (It stands to reason that it would be technically feasible to deliver strong AI capability in a cluster of servers sooner than we would be able to in a tiny lump of computing power that has to fit inside someone’s head. It’s like running a high-powered computer game on a desktop PC vs. a smartphone.)

Of course, every author gets to choose their world and the topics they want to address, so don’t take this as a negative statement: it’s just an interesting reflection on what our future will look like.

Amped is available on Amazon, and I’m sure it will be in bookstores everywhere.

It turns out that Daniel Wilson, Chris Robson, and I received some nice press coverage of our talk at SXSW on the future of artificial intelligence. Here’s a sample:

Robot Panelists, AI and the Future of Identity
#sxsw #robots
John Romano
Author & Researcher
The Digital Beyond
Stephen Reed
@stephenlreed
Bruce Duncan M Ed
Managing Director
Terasem Movement Foundation LifeNaut Project
Bina48
Robot Panelist
  • Rich Personal Data Store + Powerful AI = Virtual You
  • If AI was advanced enough, it could start expressing its own opinion
  • What will it take to create a sentient robot? Do we want to? And where are we in the process?
  • Exponential development: each step gets bigger as you go up the stairs.
  • Accelerating evolution of our tools.
  • It took 400,000 years from fire to bronze. It took 6,000 years from bronze to an iphone in your pocket.
  • is the state of AI today fire or bronze?
  • We are going to approach the singularity.
  • The moment that happens, we will be unable to see beyond. We will have people smarter than us. We can’t anticipate what they would do.
  • Stephen Reed: Texai:
    • A system you can teach useful things
    • Robots are making inroads into the bluecollar workplace.
    • AI makes inroads into whitecollar workplace.
    • Create the mind of a child, and then educate it.
    • We’ll see a demonstration of natural language 
  • Bruce Duncan
    • has a robot that works for him: Bina48
    • Goal with lifenaut is to archive human mind and upload into a robot
    • Mindfiles & Androids
    • Early mind uploading: cave paintings
    • Human beings have a need to upload: to share what’s on their mind.
    • Sum of all social media data can be used to reconstruct personality.
    • https://www.lifenaut.com/
    • Given a saturated datase or “mind file” that can be used by a future AI to be able to replicate your consciousness
    • In the future, you will be expected to have an avatar that is not just off the shelf, but can interact with people and act as you in certain circumstances.
    • http://yes.thatcan.be/my/next/tweet/
    • Genes / Memes / Bemes
    • Digital mindfiles capture bemes:
      • mannerisms
      • personality
      • language
    • What’s in it?
      • digital video/photos
      • blogs and diaries
      • psych tests and lists
      • Bainbridge surveys
      • sensecam data
      • feedback as others see me
    • Terasem Hypothesis: In the future, these reanimated personalities will be able to be imported into biological, nano-technological, and/or robotic bodies.
    • Bina48: first android based on a mindfile
  • Q: Merging mind files?
    • We made a science fiction film based on this: http://2bmovie.com/
    • We have multi-user mind files: to recreate a historical person, or a deceased family member.
  • Q: Did you have any children see Bina48 and how did they react?
    • We had an 8th grade intern, and he just sat down and talked to Bina48. He wasn’t phased by the technology at all.
  • Q: In layman’s terms, what is happening?
    • We use Dragon Naturally Speaking to do voice to text conversion.
    • We take the text input and feed into two databases.
    • One is a chatty database
    • One is a personality database
    • They compete to provide the best answer.
    • The sentences are stored in small pieces. She rarely gives the same sequence of sentences twice.

Ray Kurzweil
Expanding Our Intelligence Without Limit
#sxsw #IQExpand
  • Background
    • Written 4 best selling books
    • 19 honorary doctorates
    • Honored by multiple U.S. Presidents
    • Tons of inventions
  • The hippie movement morphed into silicon valley movement. What we have today is the democratization of technology.
  • You don’t need millions of dollars – you can start world-changing revolutions with what you have. (11 year old girl starts blog, now at 14 is on the cover of vogue with her own fashion line)
  • A boy in Africa today has access to more information than a U.S. President 15 years ago
  • Hardware increases exponentially, but software is stuck in the mud.
  • Watson is very impressive because it’s able to handle the vagaries of the human language. 
  • Made a prediction that computers would beat humans in chess by 1998, and that immediately afterwards we would dismiss chess as a non-significant program.
  • Watson is dealing with human languages. It master human language by reading 200 million pages of English content.
  • It can call up any fact in less than 3 seconds.
  • Some may say that it doesn’t understand it: because it is just statistical extraction of data.
  • But this is exactly how the human brain works.
  • Watson is not operating at human levels of intelligence yet.
  • It combines the capability that it does have with natural language, and combine that with what computers are good at: having total recall of all information.
  • Computers are shrinking at an exponential rate: a 1000x decrease in size and 1000x increase in performance since Kurzweil was an undergrad.
  • Moore’s Law is only one example
  • If you measure the basic fundamental aspects of technology, they are very smooth curves over time. 
  • Paradigms shift: from vacuum tubes to IC. 
  • But overall, the curves are very smooth.
  • It’s not just computers.
    • It’s also smartphones
    • And the bits we move around on wireless networks.
  • A very important area is biology.
  • It wasn’t an information technology problem until recently.
    • DNA Sequencing cost: dropping exponentially
    • Growth in Genbank DNA Sequence Data: increasing exponentially
  • Our genes are 23,000 software programs running in our bodies
  • Health is now a software technology problem. Therefore, it will now be subject to exponential increases.
  • The world of physical things becoming information technology
    • 3D printing: “print me a stradivarius”
    • Someone printed an airplane and flew in it.
    • At Singularity Institute we want to print out low-cost housing
  • The spacial and precisions of brain scanning is doubling
  • The precision of brain simulation is doubling
  • Is this good or bad?
    • Plot of incoming and life expectancy around the world
      • increasing for everyone. divide is still there, but the lowest countries also increased the most
    • Plot of education over time
  • Lev Grossman Interview
  • What do you think of Siri? What does it mean for the landscape of AI?
    • It’s great. People who complain remind me of the joke about the woman who has a chess playing dog, but complains that it has a lousy endgame,
    • It will keep getting better.
  • Turing test: Is it still the benchmark for recognizing self-awareness? To say that it is sentient is just bizarre. What will it take for people to recognize it as sentient?
    • Of all the different proposals, it still has the most credibility.
    • But it’s not perfect.
    • We look like we’re heading for a date of 2029.
    • As soon as we pass it, we’ll probably reject it as a valid test.
    • People will accept an entity as conscious and as a person when it seems that way: when they convince us that they have the complexity and subtly to be our equals.
  • Where is the serious progress going to come from? Is it from siri? Watson? Somewhere else?
    • It’s going to come where there is commercial value.
    • Watson is understanding sequences of words.
    • It would be of tremendous value for search engines to be able to do this.
    • In the future, search engines won’t wait to be asked, they’ll be listening in, and they will pop up information we need.
    • We’ll get used to having this information pop up in some sort of augmented reality.
  • Are they going to judge us for our search terms?
    • Making judgements is the top level of our neocortex. It’s not built in, it’s built up over time, based on what we think. We need a whole framework to make judgements.
    • These systems will make these judgements: what does Lev Grossman want vs. what someone else wants.
  • How much confidence do we have that if greater than human intelligence arises, it will want to be helpful?
    • Promise vs. peril has been an issue with technology since we had fire: it can cook food, but it can burn down our villages.
    • Biotechnology has great promise and great danger: it could be used by terrorists, and it can be used to arrest cancer.
    • Genetics Nanotechnology Robotics (GNR): promise vs. peril is a very large issue. It’s not as much an us vs. them, but an us vs. us. We have conflicts today between groups of humans. They will add GNR into the tools they use for that conflict.
    • We are a human machine civilization. It’s going to be all mixed up: we are all enhanced with computer technology.
    • We do have conflicts between humans. GNR technology can make these conflicts more harmful.
  • Should governments be more active in regulating?
    • Conflicts come from governments. So they should not regulate.
    • We (SXSW people) should be the ones to regulate it.
    • Look at the major political power of Wikipedia: it killed SOPA in hours.
  • When we talk about intelligence expanding, with technology, does it change us quantitatively or qualitatively? Does it change human nature?
    • Mammals evolved and have a neocortex. It was the first time we had an hierarchy of information.
    • Then we had a mass extinction event.
    • Given the radical sudden change in the environment. the mammals survived because they adapted.
    • Evolution recognized this, and used it more.
    • Now we have a front cortex. 
    • If you take a congenitally blind person, the regions of the neocortex used for visual end up getting used for more advanced capability of language analysis.
    • We have about 300 million pattern recognizers in the neocortex.
    • If we extend it, and are able to have even more complex thoughts.
  • Backing up the consciousness in the cloud
  • My experience of the reality around me and the people around me feels diminished when I am buried in my smartphone during this conference. Is this a zero-sum game?
    • There was a big controversy that kids weren’t going to learn arithmetic when calculators were invented.
    • And in fact, they don’t.
    • We’ve outsourced some of our ability to technology.
    • It frees up our energy to be able to do other creative things: like the people at the conference.
    • We are free to choose how we spend out time and how we organize it.
    • You are communicating with other people, either directly or indirectly.
    • It has expanded our minds.
    • We have a 19th century model of education.
    • We should teach our kids how to solve problems
  • Paul Allen essay: published a few months ago, “the singularity is not here”. The law of exponential growth: It’s not a physical law. It’s just an observation until it no longer works. What if we hit a wall?
    • Moore’s law will come to an end: but that’s just the fifth paradigm. Before we had transistors, before that we had vacuum tubes, before that we had mechanical computers.
    • Paul is confusing the end of one paradigm with the end of all growth. We’ll go on to another paradigm.
  • Have you been wrong with your predictions?
    • In terms of the underlying capabilities: everything has stayed right on the curves.
    • In terms of social predictions: those are harder. I rate myself as 86% correct on my social predictions… Like having self-driving cars.
  • According to a research presentation at the Singularity Institute large year: the complexity of even a single cell is immense, and it will be impossible to simulate it all.
    • There is massive redundancy. When we look at how much information is encoded in the genome, you realize that the connections are redundant. 
    • In the cerebullum you have connections wired together 10 million times. Massive levels of redundancy. 
    • You could say a forest is incredibly complex, but there is fractal redundancy.
  • How confident do you feel that the kinds of marvelous benefits that are coming will be available to the 99%?
    • You have to take a lot of comfort from where we are today.
    • Twenty years ago, if you took our a mobile phone, that was a sign that you were an elite. They were big and heavy and limited functionality.
    • Now they can do so much more, and are small, and they are in everyone’s hands.
    • Every field is being empowered by increasingly inexpensive and increasingly powerful tools: music, health, etc.
    • They will make their ways into our bodies and brains, but that’s an arbitrary distinction.
    • I don’t see a tremendous power being given to an elite.
  • Say you’re graduating from college right now. What would you want to do to get yourself ready for the decades to come?
    • All of our education needs to encompass doing as a centerpiece of the curriculum.
    • If I was a student, I would be at an institution where that was how it was done.
  • Questions from audience
    • Q: ?
      • People should learn about how computers work, not just to use them, to know what they are capable of.
      • Biology is a field where doing is a method of learning.
      • Virtual reality: we don’t want to look at these little screens.

If you’re going to be at SXSW Interactive next week, I hope you’ll join us at Wall-E or Terminator: Predicting the Future of AI.

Daniel H. Wilson (author of Robopocalypse, upcoming AMPED), Chris Robson (chief scientist at Parametric Marketing), and myself will be speaking about whether there’s going to be a singularity, when it would happen, if ever, and whether that’s even a relevant question to be talking about.

Daniel and Chris are absolutely brilliant, and I can promise this will be a fun and informative discussion. If our previous discussions are any indication, I can promise we’ll all bring very unique points of view to the debate, er panel.

You’ll find us here:

Tuesday, March 13, 2012
9:30AM -10:30AM
Hilton Austin Downtown
Salon J

By the way, if you’re there, and want to get a hold of me, twitter is usually the best way. You’ll find me at @hertling. You can find Daniel at @danielwilsonpdx, and Chris at @paramktg.