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Amazing talk by Luke Ryan (@lukeryansays) on The Future of Media at Willamette Writers Conference. #WillWrite14

  • What’s broken, and the challenges ahead of it
  • How to fix it
  • What’s the future
  • The Challenges
    • technological dissonance: new technologies challenge their standard technologies, leading them to change their habits of media consumption or curb them altogether.
      • there’s DVDs and blue ray, and streaming video, it’s all so challenging. I’ll just wait.
    • disruptive technology: suddenly and dramatically changes the industry.
      • 8-tape to cassette tape were a transition technology.
      • vinyl to tape: also transition.
      • CD more disruptive: because it ate everything that came before it.
      • digital is totally disruptive: because it destroys everything before it AND even destroys the outlets that sold the old stuff.
        • no record stores, no bookstores, etc.
    • film:
      • revenue is slightly up. looks healthy.
      • but reality is that ticket sales are down.
      • it’s being made up by much higher ticket prices (from $5.80 in 2002 to $8.10 in 2012)
      • ticket prices disguises unhealthy underlying economics.
    • film – key issues
      • skyrocketing marketing costs
      • substantial front-end investment
      • massive loss of home video revenue
    • film history
      • Jaws: first movie to open in all theaters at the same time. never happened before. it was the first blockbuster.
      • So then every movie had to open that way. that created competition: multiple movies opening on same weekend.
      • so they had to increase marketing spend to get attention.
      • soon they were making little money in theaters, but they were making it up in home video sales
        • home video was as much as 90% of the total theatre gross, nearly doubling total revenue.
      • marketing spend: harold and kumar go to whitecastle. Made for $4.5M, marketing department spend $28M, killing profitability of movie.
      • because the marketing department commands more money, they have more control. so soon the movie-making decisions are being made by the marketing department: remakes, toy connected stuff.
    • with netflix and other services, nearly all home video sales dead. Frozen is the rare exception.
    • TV
      • median age: 51
      • even CW, which aims to reach woman 18-34: median age is 33.
      • young people are on instagram and snapchat.
      • age breakdown:
        • mobile video: teens
        • online video: 20s
        • TV: 30s and older
    •  TV key issues
      • loss of ad revenue via demographic decline and DVR
      • competition for short-form entertainment
    • Books
      • All book sales are declining…except ebooks.
      • Legacy publishing: sales stagnant. flat projected out.
      • self-publishing: up and to the right. continual growth.
    • Book Key Issues
      • decline in traditional distribution
      • competition with other forms of media
  • Traditional Distribution Systems
    • Creator -> Distributor -> Consumer
    • traditional systems are breaking down…
    • leaving room for new paradigms to take their place
    • Creator <-> Technology <-> Consumer
    • Not only does the traditional distribution go away, but it becomes a relationship instead of a push.
  • The Long Tail
  • Fan Strategy
    • Creating spreadable content that allows every different fan type to engage on a level that is pleasurable to them and profitable for you.
    • Fan types:
      • Skimmers, Dippers, and Divers
      • Skimmer: watch the series
      • Dipper: watch the series, read the book
      • Divers: watch the series, read the books, visit the communities, buy the costume, go to the convention.
    • The more passionate fans are your evangelists. So you want to develop skimmers into dippers, dippers into divers. The divers will create more skimmers and dippers.
    • Game of Throne – Five Senses Campaign
      • Smells of Game of Thrones: tweeting about it. (Mailed out)
      • Food of Game of Thrones: on social media about it. (in NY only)
      • It creates buzz, even though only a small subset engages in it.
  • Social Media Heft
    • One’s cumulative amount of influence and reach across social platforms allowing for strategic fan engagement and expansion of overall awareness.
    • Anyone can put digital stuff online. But how can we get attention?
    • How do people find what they like? “Well, I like what Julie likes, and Julie says I should watch this, so I will.”
    • In the future, this will be monetized. You’ll pay the content creator directly, and Julie will get a little bounty.
  • Hot Tub Time Machine:
    • took $4M out of marketing budget and used it to do free screenings for people with social media heft.
    • in response to study showing that people would see the movie only if a friend recommended it
  • Brands don’t want consumers anymore. They want fans.
  • Coca-Cola is kicking Hollywood’s ass, and Hollywood doesn’t know it yet.
  • Should Coke advertise? They don’t need to. They could make TV shows, shows that they own, that strengthen their brand at the same time that they now have an asset: they own the TV show.
    • Once Coke proves this out, everyone else will follow.
  • Traditional marketing: shoot out money hoping to hit eyeballs.
  • New paradigm:
    • Money goes into content, content goes to eyeballs, that generates money, which goes back into more content.
  • How traditional media will evolve:
    • Film
      • purchase of feature film companies by tech/telecom
      • Rise of new direct distribution indie film business
      • maximization of assets by blending with video game industry
    • television
      • networks become self-selective app portals
      • rise of second-screen technology
      • independent creator distribution through tablet and web.
      • those with the greatest social media heft will win.
    • books
      • digital becomes standard
      • interactive forms of narrative and illustration.
      • authors thrive on direct interaction with consumers.
  • “It is only forms that change, not essence.” — Ram Daas
  • Transmedia
    • Narrative built across multiple platforms that is designed to grow exponentially with as little repetition as possible.
    • Avoiding the repetition is key: if you make a movie and book that is identical, you haven’t given the fan anything new.
  • Velocity
    • 1. quickness and force of motion.
    • 2. rate of occurrence, action, or turnover.
    • The velocity of money is key to what makes the economy work. $5 sitting in your pocket does nothing.
    • The velocity of entertainment
  • Narrative leverage
    • Unique narrative lines across multiple platforms of entertainment.
    • platforms: film, television, games, apps, digital, social, merchandise.
    • world: a specific and contained system in which various entities attempt to thrive, occasionally in harmony, but mostly in conflict.
    • core story: the primary narrative off which all other story assets and platforms will grow. your core story is the trunk, and the rest of the platforms are branches off it. The core story will generally settle on one platform.
    • story asset: any sequence, character, or notion that has the opportunity to be broken out and used in a more expansive way across other platforms.
  • more successful transmedia franchises
    • sesame street
    • star wars
    • the bible (jesus tweets, churches, etc.)
  • building a transmedia franchise
    • find the world and characters you want to explore
    • find the platform best suited for the core story you want to tell
    • design a narrative experience across this platform
    • take stock of your story assets
    • take stock of your audience challenges
    • begin to build other assets across their most helpful platforms in terms of both story telling and audience engagement.
  • Marketing cost
    • one of the great strains to any entertainment platforms bottom line is the marketing cost that must exist.
    • Transmedia can replace that marketing cost with engagement, distribution, and world of mouth.
  • Film
    • positive: one of most popular. communal experience. can tell a story well and with the highest quality technical assets.
    • negatives: can only go so deep into the story. same experience. not interactive. very expensive.
  • television
    • positive: convenient/casual experience.e format allows for greater story depth. story evolves over time. relative high quality. less time per visit than film.
    • negative: only slightly more interactive than film. interrupted narrative: segment to segment, show to show, season to season. reliant on large following to remain in production. relatively expensive.
  • Books
    • positive: convenient and portable. immersive mental experience. can be enjoyed at the pace of the consumer. author has the greatest control of the content.
    • negatives: portable. time and thought intensive. largest cost-to-entertainment ratio among platforms. $30 hardcover for X hours of entertainment.
  • Games
    • positive: interactive, immersion. greater story depth. possibility of open world. can be monetized in strategic ways (e.g. virtual economy)
    • negatives: often requires physical skill. specialized delivery system (xbox), very expensive to produce.
  • Apps
    • Interactive. can be consumed as a snack. relative low cost. fun, addictive style of play. portable and live on necessary device. booming virtual economies.
    • negatives: lack of in depth experience, can be repetitive. hard to get noticed.
  • Digital
    • positive: in-depth, serialized story. more ability to have a social component. can be made for relatively low cost. Can be consumed from many types of devices. can be a snack.
    • negatives
  • Social
    • positives: high interactive. intimate connection between creator, story, and consumer. builds awareness and affection for little cost. can be a unifying guide between platforms.
    • negatives: a hard platform on which to tell a story. has to be deliver in small bits. requires consistent maintenance and interaction. possible to lose control of the message/conversation.
  • Merchandise
    • positive: a tactile experience. encourages interaction. highly monetizable. serves as marketing to those beyond the initial consumer.
    • negatives: takes up space, requires up front money.
  • Homework
    • Watch one of the great trilogies (lord of rings, star wars, the matrix)
    • identify all the story assets: write them down.
    • identify all the audience challenges (e.g. males under 25…how do i reach them)
    • do this for your own IP: develop a franchise bible
      • overview of the franchise
      • overview of the world itself
      • core story
      • platform-by-platform breakdown
      • summary of connective tissue between platforms
      • marketing strategies
      • distribution strategies/timelines
      • glossary of unique terms
  • There are no gatekeepers any more.
    • climbing up the long tail is not possible.
    • that doesn’t mean it’s easy.
  • Q: how to expand beyond the literary
    • Are you creating something that’s spreadable?
    • something that’s an easy engagement beyond what exists.
  • Franchise Pitch for AMBER book series.
    • (shown as a series of slides: title, cool image, descriptive text)
    • History of the Franchise
    • The Books
    • What makes it cool.
    • what’s special inside it.
    • FILM
      • here are what the three films could be. (and i’ve got one script for you)
    • TELEVISION
      • Here is what the TV show could be.
      • Non-repetitive to the movie script. Here is what you could build around it.
      • three different TV show ideas, playing off different story assets.
    • MOBILE
      • the games that can be played
    • INTERACTIVE FICTION
      • choose your own adventure games
    • SOCIAL
    • BOOKS
      • New books in the series
      • rights to do graphic novels
    • Strategy
      • a chart showing each of the forms of media along the left side, with a timeline across the top, showing connections between specific properties.